The Tsunami, Phoenix, Tequila Sunset and Fedex Scenarios

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Book serves as guide for policymakers and development practitioners who are grappling with implications of international trade agreements for states and communities.

Book provides several scenarios for state or local development teams that are working to design policy or initiatives to help the rural apparel industry in a region impacted by international trade agreement.

Scenario (1) entails the worst prospects for the U.S. apparel industry; Scenario (2) entails slightly less disastrous impacts, with the name “Phoenix Scenario” describes a re-emerging and revitalized apparel industry in the U.S. over the next 20 years; Scenario (3) entails a scene win which competitive advantages enjoyed by the U.S. will disappear under NAFTA entirely; Scenario (4) or the “FedEx Scenario” describe a setting in which the attractive economics of air freight- combined with an increased reliance on modern community- will progressively undermine the Phoenix Scenario.

Aspen Institute Community Strategies Group