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This file, by William H. Frey, examines demographic changes in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan America, particularly focusing on the “nonmetropolitan turnaround” of the 1970s and its reversal in the 1980s. The author reviews three perspectives to explain population redistribution:
- Period Explanations: Attribute demographic shifts to unique economic and demographic circumstances of a specific decade (e.g., the energy crisis and baby boomers coming of age in the 1970s). These shifts are seen as temporary aberrations.
- Regional Restructuring Perspective: Focuses on the transformation of the nation’s industrial makeup, with growth shifting to metropolitan areas acting as advanced service centers and corporate headquarters, and declines in areas tied to old-line manufacturing or routine production.
- Deconcentration Perspective: Argues that long-standing residential preferences for low-density locations are becoming less constrained by institutional and technological barriers, leading to a long-term dispersal of population away from urban agglomerations.
The paper evaluates these perspectives against the trends of the 1980s, concluding that the “period” and “regional restructuring” perspectives received greater empirical support than the “deconcentration” perspective. The nonmetropolitan growth of the 1970s, which led to the idea of a “rural renaissance,” was significantly impacted by economic downturns and industrial restructuring in the 1980s. Despite the overall decline in nonmetropolitan growth in the 1980s, the author notes continued population gains in specific nonmetropolitan areas:
- Retirement counties: Attracting elderly populations with high discretionary incomes, creating jobs in services and construction.
- Exurban counties: Adjacent to metropolitan areas, chosen by residents who prefer to live near, but not within, major urban centers.
Finally, the paper discusses how demographic structure, specifically age-cohort patterns and increasing racial/ethnic diversity, will influence future redistribution. While nonmetropolitan areas remain attractive to the elderly, they appear less so for younger cohorts. The increasing urbanization of most minority groups, coupled with lower nonmetropolitan fertility, suggests slow near-term growth prospects for much of nonmetropolitan America. The author concludes that a strong reliance on resource-based and low-skilled industries is not sustainable for stable demographic growth, and that economic diversification in nonmetropolitan areas will be crucial for future gains, allowing residential preferences for rural living to eventually drive broader distribution shifts.
